Market size and share

Total UK grocery market revenue was £220.7 billion in 2023, representing a 21.5% increase since 2015 (BNP Paribas Real Estate, 2025). Online purchases increased 3.7% to 10% of revenue during COVID, only dropping by 0.5-1% in subsequent years. The proportion of UK supermarket online shopping that is collected versus delivered is not known; however, a 2022 US study reported 63% of customers preferred grocery delivery over click and collect (McKinsey & Company, 2022).

Delivery transfers the emissions and energy consumption from the customer to the retailer increassing their scope 1 emissions and total energy consumption.

Retailers vary in market share, with the largest (Tesco) having 27.8% of the market in the three months to 20 April 2024, followed by Sainsbury’s with 15.3%. Retailer market share changes over time, with both Lidl and Aldi having increased their share by 2.5% between 2020 and 2025, while Asda has declined by 3.7%.

Emssions and energy consumption are expected to increase with retailer turnover as a measure of size.

Basket price

Perhaps the most important aspect of market position is basket price. While prices constantly vary and are difficult to measure, basket-cost values provide a window onto market position, but vary in the number and range of items and collection methodology. No single price survey included all retailers, so for the purposes of this tutorial, a composite price index was calculated from eight surveys published online.

Survey	Date	Description
Which (4 surveys)	March 2024 and March 2005	Long and short basket lists
BravoVoucher via Edinburgh Evening News	December 2024	Christmas dinner
rest less	February 2024	Cheapest supermarket of 19 basic items
Good Housekeeping via Daily Express	2018	13 items
Wallet Savvy	2023	Cheapest supermarket of 49 basic items

Co-op and Iceland are the least represented, being present in only two and three surveys, respectively. Prices within baskets are scaled from 0 to 1 by dividing by the highest basket price within the survey. If the price is reported with and without a store card, then the two values are averaged. The basket price index is the mean of scaled basket prices.

Three pricing ‘tiers’ are apparent: low price (Lidl and Aldi), mid-price (Asda, Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Morrison’s, Iceland, and Coop), and high price (Ocado, Waitrose, and Marks and Spencer). The two low-price supermarkets have increased their market share over the last four years, which, as we will later see, has been accompanied by an increase in store numbers.

Relative basket price may indirectly impact retailer emmissions and energy consumption through customer choice driving business expansion.

Corporate image

Consumer choice may be influenced by the consumer’s ‘image’ of the retailer as well as the relative basket price. While not a primary concern here, ‘ethical shopping’ is a driver of consumer choice. Consumers assess a retailer’s ethical stance from personal experience and information they receive from the retailer through advertising (Kong and Zhang 2013), signage (Grandi and Cardinali 2025), labelling (Gadema and Oglethorpe 2011), and news (Bellotti and Panzone 2016), and consumer campaigns. Corporate image is beyond the scope of this tutorial, but as an example, consider the cover design of sustainability, environment, and governance (ESG) reports published by UK supermarket retailers. All are published as PDF files except Tesco, which publishes a spreadsheet.

Four show agriculture (JPL, M&S, Ocado, and Tesco), three workers in the store (Sainsbury’s, Lidl, and Coop), and one shopper (Asda). Three employ graphic designs (Iceland, Morrisons, and ASDA). Higher-price retailers emphasize food production and quality, in contrast to mid- and low-price retailers who put greater emphasis on people (workforce and shoppers). It is tempting to jump to the conclusion that these images reflect store values; however, this is just a single sample, and retailers may vary imagery between reports. Nevertheless, corporate imagery and other ‘image factors’ including ‘good’ and ‘bad’ news stories and consumer campaigns may influence consumer choice.

Corporate image may indirectly impact retailer emmissions and energy consumption through customer choice driving business size and practice.

Store estate

Retailer ‘size’ may be measured by the physical area of their estate operation as well as revenue. Retailer estate portfolios vary in store number, size, and spatial distribution, which in turn influence emissions and energy usage through building construction and decommissioning (Blay-Armah et al. 2023; Mohebbi et al. 2023), maintenance and retrofit (Jenkins 2008), operation (Marrucci et al. 2020), and transportation of produce from distribution centres to stores and homes (Zhang et al. 2023).

Retailer emissions and energy consumption are expected to be influenced by store design, size, and operation.

Retailer emissions and energy consumption are expected to be linked to the location of stores and distribution centers, and the retailers vehicle fleet and routing.

The Geolytix Supermarket Retail Points data set locates over 18,000 UK supermarkets by retailer, opening year, and floor space classes enabling the calculation of year-on-year retailer store number, area and their spatial distribution.

References

Bellotti, E. and Panzone, L. (2016). Media effects on sustainable food consumption. How newspaper coverage relates to supermarket expenditures. International Journal of Consumer Studies, 40: 186-200. https://doi.org/10.1111/ijcs.12242

Blay-Armah A, Mohebbi G, Bahadori-Jahromi A, Fu C, Amoako-Attah J, Barthorpe M. Evaluation of Embodied Carbon Emissions in UK Supermarket Constructions: A Study on Steel, Brick, and Timber Frameworks with Consideration of End-of-Life Processes. Sustainability. 2023; 15(20):14978. https://doi.org/10.3390/su152014978

BNP Paribas Real Estate (2025). UK Supermarkets Report, March 2015. https://www.realestate.bnpparibas.co.uk/insights/uk-supermarkets-report-march-2025

Gadema, Z. and Oglethorpe, D. (2011). The use and usefulness of carbon labelling food: A policy perspective from a survey of UK supermarket shoppers. Food Policy, 36(6), pp. 815–822. Available at: https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2011.08.001.

Grandi, B. and Cardinali, M.G. (2025). The distance between sustainability store image and store identity inside grocery stores,. International Journal of Retail & Distribution Management, 53(13), pp. 90–103. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJRDM-12-2023-0704.

Jenkins, D. P. (2008). Using dynamic simulation to quantify the effect of carbon-saving measures for a UK supermarket. Journal of Building Performance Simulation, 1(4), 275–288. https://doi.org/10.1080/19401490802566891

Kong, Y., & Zhang, A. (2013). Consumer response to green advertising: the influence of product involvement. Asian Journal of Communication, 23(4), 428–447. https://doi.org/10.1080/01292986.2013.774433

Marrucci, L., Marchi, M. and Daddi, T. (2020). Improving the carbon footprint of food and packaging waste management in a supermarket of the Italian retail sector. Waste Management, 105, pp. 594–603. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/J.WASMAN.2020.03.002.

McKinsey & Company (2022). Navigating the market headwinds: The state of grocery
retail 2022, North America. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/retail/our-insights/achieving-profitable-online-grocery-order-fulfillment#/

Mohebbi G, Hasan A, Blay-Armah A, Bahadori-Jahromi A, Mylona A, Barthorpe M. Comparative analysis of the whole life carbon of three construction methods of a UK-based supermarket. Building Services Engineering Research & Technology. 2023;44(3):355-375. doi:10.1177/01436244231161070

Zhang C, Tang L, Zhang J, Gou L. Optimizing Distribution Routes for Chain Supermarket Considering Carbon Emission Cost. Mathematics. 2023; 11(12):2734. https://doi.org/10.3390/math11122734